Well, that's why these are our longshot bets. We have picked each I have to admit to being legit surprised so much emphasis on Adams not being on the roster. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. Have fun against that pass rush, wrecked Chargers offensive line (especially you, right tackle Foster Sarell). The 2019 team had a better point differential than the 13-3 Packers did. Cale Clinton: Dallas Cowboys (+280). Philadelphia Eagles (+200) Of COURSE! He was my favorite guy coming out of the draft, I think he fits really well for Dan Campbell, and he's going to produce a lot of highlight-reel plays very quicklya lead that Thibodeaux may not be able to claw back by the time he's back up to speed. Baker, in theory, is a massive upgrade over Darnold who probably was the worst non rookie starting QB in the league last year. Aaron: I think it's more likely that Cooper Kupp puts up another year of fantastic receiving numbers than it is that Jonathan Taylor can match last year's rushing numbers. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is suffering from the worst Super Bowl hangover in recent memory. Our NFL betting picks break down Akers' rushing total for Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles. And what if the other 49 voters who are not me actually pay attention to things like cornerback charting stats and evengasp!PFF grades and realize how good AJ Terrell is? What if Kenny Pickett is good? However, after the Buccaneers collapsed against Cleveland and the Saints got shut out in San Francisco, this spread officially opened Tampa Bay -6 on Sunday night and quickly saw money on the underdog. If Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing attack can outduel the Baltimore Ravens secondary, they should hopefully be able to take care of business against a weaker Titans passing defense. Raiders vs Rams Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Akers Bottled Up by Silver and Black, Dolphins vs Chargers Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Chargers Can't Climb Hill, NFL Week 14 Odds and Betting Lines: Jets vs Bills Headlines Busy Sunday Slate, Patriots vs Cardinals MNF Prop Bets: Parker Sees an Increased Role on Prime-Time, Patriots vs Cardinals Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Henry Answers the Call, James Conner MNF Spotlight: Player Props for Monday Night Football Week 14, Top FanDuel Promo Code Gives UP To $1,000 for Dolphins vs Chargers on Sunday Night Football. But I do agree that the hype seems to treat them as established Kings in the East, and, like, we can all see they actually finished below Mac "3 PAs" Jones and the Pats in offensive (and specifically passing) DVOA last year, right? The Dolphins have an exciting offense. I think all of the coaching flaws are magnified when the roster is bad. Aaron: Every year, there's always the possibility of Patrick Mahomes just going completely HAM on the NFL. Gardner won't have the same opportunities, considering no one threw at him all preseason long, but someone will throw at him eventually. I'm intentionally going contrarian here, but you only need Minnesota to win one-out-of-seven times to come out ahead here. New Orleans, which forced the Bucs to go 5-for-17 on third downs in Week 2, ranks out 12th in third down conversion defense and has the third lowest touchdown rate allowed in the red zone (47.06%). Only Rogers and Brady have the publics trust to match Mahomes' mean efficiency and both are much much older. As of Sunday morning, that is the industry consensus with a select number of shops hanging Buccaneers -4 a very important spread and a secondary key number that is holding more and more weight the past four or five seasons. I would stay far away from co-favorite Deebo Samuel, not because he's not good, but because the expectation is that the 49ers' offense will operate deeper in the passing game this year, which should lead to Brandon Aiyuk eating into Samuel's volume a little bit. Player Pos Team Opponent Dome Fantasy Points Overall Rank Also egomaniacs - especially especially Jerrah - so their budship certainly had an expiration date once they started competing for public adulation. Aaron: Well, I have been on all kinds of radio shows and podcasts and even Good Morning Football talking about how the Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorites. Vincent Verhei: Philadelphia Eagles (+200). If you want to insinuate that something untoward is going on, make an accusation. he has not led in any major statistical category or been in the top two of MVP voting since 2018. Seems difficult. Even when Toney broke out, his season was not good relative to former first-round picks. Aaron: Well, the Football Outsiders team projections narrowly put the Chargers over the Chiefs for the AFC West title and the Vikings over the Packers for the NFC North title. Akers may share time with Darrell Henderson, but it's going to be a very good offense. over .500? Design and development by Jay Boice. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. He lost Hill. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The opening spread may have been calling for a wider finish to Monday Night Football, but the betting markets believe this divisional showdown could be much tighter than first projected. Do you have any faith in Matt LaFleur coaching that vikings team instead vs Rodgers with Zimmer? Their defense is exciting for DFS players, but not Dolphins fans. I have questions about the Bills' ability to be consistently great week-in and week-out, and questions about whether or not that inconsistency will cost them the bye week, home-field advantage, and an easier path to the Super Bowl. Jerrah has never been shy of dumping his coaches mid season in favor of a hot shot coordinator, even one's coming off a playoff birth the year prior. Just like yesterday, we're picking three players for each prop. The Over/Under for this divisional dance hit the board at 40.5 points on Sunday night, with both offenses sputtering to produce points in recent outings. Which might be good for the Bills in the playoffs, having had to sharpen their skills against superior competition, but it makes them somewhat less likely to even make the playoffs in the first place. 2019: 83.6 Being able to adapt in game so the talent can adjust on the field to the opponent. Additionally, if you'd like to donate above and beyond the ad-free option, you can donate via PayPal as well. Giving the talent a good plan to execute. And yet, he is the consensus pick to lead the league in yards, TDs, and win MVP. He's going to come back not only from injury but from last year's dismal playoff performance. I still expect a ton of sacks, probably too many killer sack fumbles, and a defense that gets shreded week to week(sorry Bengals fans). You also have two franchises rooted in defense that know each other playbooks inside and out. I get that not all the voters might think this way, but there are some low odds here for players whom I would never, ever vote for, regardless of how good of a season they put up. Steelers Predicted As Landing Spot For Jimmy Garoppolo By ESPN Insider Field Yates https://t.co/Ckbulz9OeX #Steelers pic.twitter.com/gwN2Bs5w71, Steelers Depot 7 (@Steelersdepot) March 4, 2022. Brown. If you want to go chalk, just go with the Eagles. But the Rams are 31st in DVOA against WR1s, and you could argue that Adams is the best WR1 going right now. San Francisco 49ers (+500) The best bet is still Rhule. And even then, it was reasonably closePeterson got just 61% of the vote, with Manning picking up the rest of it. The Rams offense should still be powerful, but like we wrote about yesterday, we're not sure how much faith we have in Van Jefferson or Tyler Higbee to put up big numbers. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. That defensive one is a surprise given that they were 25th last year, but look at the additions: Haason Reddick, James Bradberry, Kyzir White, two good rookies, Brandon Graham coming back from injury. The Panthers are a mess. 7 in DVOA and has held its last three opponents to 20 points or less in regulation. That means another year with a lot of passes going to Kupp. Also, be sure to check out Josh Inglis' full TNF player prop picks. He's given full disclosure that he's an AP voter. Their 5.5% DVOA was their best since Week 6, and they scored a go-ahead touchdown with 3:07 left to play. Pickens / Breece / Skylar Thompson (a very long shot), You previously said that you predicted the Eagles would win the Super Bowl, now youre going with the Bills, - hes famous enough for it. Likely? Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750) Of course, Im talking about the Steelers potentially trading for Garoppolo, snagging him away from the San Francisco 49ers, which happened to be the prediction from FOs Robert Weintraub. The Eagles Look, he's a great player. The Chargers are 26th in DVOA against those. The Raiders bring a three-game winning streak with them to SoFi Stadium, which will feature plenty of Silver and Black in the stands, going back to the franchises time in L.A. Los Angeles is trying to tread water on a broken season but made waves by picking up castoff quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has a chance to play with Matthew Stafford out and backup John Wolford injured. Bryan: I have been looking for odds on Sammy Womack everywhere, because if I don't get one homer pick in these things, I start to break out in hives. As for the Raiders offense, its leaning into the ground and pound with RB Josh Jacobs. My random sample size is a few podcasts along with sites like FO. Of course it's Matt Rhule; it has to be Matt Rhule. In reply to RE: Vikings chatter by big10freak. They have only had three games with a positive DVOA all season, and two of them were against Baker Mayfield and John Wolford. There are less reasons to doubt them than any of the other top teams - KC lost Hill, nobody believes in the Cowboys (understandably), TB didn't look quite as fearsome by the end of the year + one of these days Brady will fall off. right? (maybe about how much they drink while betting), (2 ridiculous picks isn't bad at all when making this many picks). The Bucs offense gets a lift from the home field, most notably the pass game which could have Tampa inside field goal range more often on Monday night. Aaron Schatz: Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ. I love my chances to cash in big on both yards and touchdowns here. NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. Most observers would say Jefferson is a more talented receiver than Kupp, so imagine the numbers he could put up in that role! Re: the Bills, I agree with the others that they are probably the single most likely team to win it all; I can't think of anyone I'd "objectively" rate higher (only real other contenders were KC, who, you know, did in fact outplay them last year in the game that's given the Bills so much hype; and the Rams, whose stars in their famous stars-and-scrubs roster are all squarely in their prime, though Stafford's elbow is worrying). I also question if the Bills secondary can hold up enough to secure a top seed. Spread: Raiders -6.5 (-110) vs. Rams +6.5 (-110), Moneyline: Raiders (-305) vs. Rams (+240), Total: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110). Jimmy Garoppolo's injury dropped San Francisco's odds of winning the NFC, but those odds are still pretty good compared to the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation. Those intermediate middle passes that Tua Tagovailoa loves so much? Photo: USA Today Sports Images. Bold, at least to many covering the Steelers at this point in time, would be signing cornerback JC Jackson to the richest deal in position history, or trading a bunch of future picks for Aaron Rodgers and prying the championship window wide open once again. New York Giants (+4000). The Rams have fallen to 3-9, with defensive superstar Aaron Donald and quarterback Matthew Stafford shut down for the season. Those are still super long odds so the MVP remains a QB only reward. Not even mentioning all the new defensive additions Staley's been provided, which the voters of course would mention. Aaron: What if AJ Terrell (+6500) puts together another year like last year, where he had the best cornerback charting stats since Darrelle Revis? Pittsburgh has some interesting young pieces on offense Najee Harris,Pat Freiermuth,Diontae Johnson who Garoppolo can make better. Aaron: I'm going to go three out of three on wide receivers. The Raiders have a horrific defense, but the Rams wont be able to take advantage of that. Conversely, Im not sure if the Raiders will take advantage of the Rams defense. They're our simulation's favorite, they're the sportsbook's favorite, and they're mine, too. Tampa Bay and Los Angeles have better DVOA projections. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? However, there are multiple factors working against Akers entering this short week that have me betting the Under 45.5 yards, as I believe this Over/Under is a bit of an overreaction to Sundays showing. Carl Yedor: Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, RBs, DAL. For each team, we've listed a best-case scenario of what would take our prediction of a top-10 pick and turn it into a playoff season. [the Charger GM {whomever he is; I'm lazy} of course]), In reply to skin in the game by BigRichie. That went away just fine starting in 2001. You really think leaving Reid and Mahomes will be good for Tyreke's numbers? Our NFL predictions call for changes in the final rankings over the next few weeks. In fact, can we just pencil the entire Baltimore Ravens team here? Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. Here are two of the best bonuses* available: A) Opt-In to get a 100% profit boost on any TNF bet tonight at DraftKings! You said yesterday that you prefer Nick as your Bosa brother with the most sacks, but I actually like Joey. Sometimes, gambling advice is objectivelike in the NFL picks you get with FO+, for instance. The Arizona offseason has been contentious, to say the least, with new points of drama popping up nearly every week. The other was against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, so fair play to them there, but that leaves them with one game all season where they have played well against a team with a viable starting quarterback. would have to be Trey Lance, who was neither injured nor bad last year. - he tends to do spectacular shit that garners attention, not just boring good. Yet. The Pittsburgh Steelers are certainly going to be active this offseason, that much is certain. Should one or both of those players be active, this spread could jump to a touchdown. Limited to teams that are underdogs by three points or more. I'm writing articles on Thursdays now! I also find it amusing how the name of this one has changed over the yearsit went from First Coach Fired to First Coach to Lose Job and now First Coach to Permanently Leave, as sportsbooks try to find a polite way to allow people to spend money on coaches they think are very bad. Jimmy and Jerrah were best buds from their Arkansas days. Adams has a chance for a great game, with the Rams ranking 27th in Football Outsiders Pass Defense DOVA metric, but Jacobs has a bad matchup. Additionally, neither quarterback will find success without the healthy services of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. I think Lamar Jackson is still an MVP-caliber player, and even if the receiver corps isn't world-class, the rushing attack and Jackson's dual-threat abilities make them one of the hardest teams to game-plan against. His carries could also diminish if Perkins gets the nod over an injured Wofford, as hes run for 92 yards on 18 attempts in his limited work this season, including nine runs for 44 yards versus Kansas City. That pans out to 2.5 average field goal attempts from NOLAs foes this season third most in the NFL and rival kickers have put up totals of seven, eight, and eight points in the last three games. And remember what a transcendent prospect Trevor Lawrence was, the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. After things got chippy between these teams in Week 2, New Orleans heads to Tampa to seek revenge on the Bucs. So whatever gains on offense might be offset by slippage on the defense. Its one youve seen over and over again. And while Kingsbury did just sign a new extension, the Cardinals also made Murray the highest-paid quarterback in the league and, well, there's no salary cap for coaches. I think the Packers taking a step back can be supported with Adams being one of several things (namely it being hard to keep winning 13 odd games each season being the biggest reason) but based on the interwebs one only hears about Adams as being THE reason. If he cleans up his sacks a little bit, he could very easily top DYAR, DVOA, EPA, whatever you want to use this season. Copyright 1995 - 2022 easy money for Vegas) to see Watson on these lists at all, ironically tied with Baker on MVP. As a result, the Raiders are no closer to the top of the AFC West as in the past. Aaron: Anyway, we said yesterday that I'm driving the Jameis Winston bandwagon, so let's go with Winston here as well. But if Stingley is really fully healthy and anywhere near where he was a couple years ago, the Texans may have grabbed the best player in this year's class. The Buccaneers edged NOLA 20-10 back in Week 2, with eight of those points coming off the foot of Succop. Editor-in-Chief That workload has shot up the past three games, with Los Angeles handing off on 50.56% of snaps for carry counts of 33, 28, and 30. If Jacksonville wants to make a run at a playoff berth, they need to take care of their divisional competition, and their passing offense could be enough to spring the upset here if they can hit a few big chunk plays down the field. Aaron: There has been a lot of talk about Justin Jefferson in the "Cooper Kupp role" with Kevin O'Connell bringing the Sean McVay offense over to Minnesota. The Saints have done a great job of slowing down Tom Brady & Co. since the GOAT made the move to Tampa in 2020, and are hoping to have shutdown CB Marshon Lattimore back in action for Week 13. More Stats and information for you by ~DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders~ >> The Eagles enter the field with an 8-0 record on the season. We know that opponents will also need to pay attention to Jaylen Waddle. The Bucs are 22nd in Red Zone DVOA and are scoring on only half of their tries inside the opponents 20-yard line. Its probably why he fell in love with Jimmy Johnson. At the same time, it's perplexing (i.e. Bryan: Lance did at least have a hurt thumb for a couple weeks. While some respected shops are on the high end with the road team, the market consensus is Raiders -6. Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST. Since I think SF has the schedule and talent to be a top seed, my pick would be Trey Lance. Uh, the "nobody believes in us" card is fair, just as it was more or less considered fair for Roethlisberger's crew during the '10 season where they made the SB. After enjoying a decade and a half of Hall of Fame-level quarterback play, the Steelers found out how the other half lived over the last couple of seasons. Tampa Bays offense is in a much better place than it was back in September, with the receiving corps healthier and this matchup coming at Raymond James Stadium. Football Outsiders projection: 7.2. I feel like Kaiir Elam has some juice as a DROTY in a world where QBs look across the field and see White, Hyde, Poyer, and Johnson, and just keep testing the rookie. The Cardinals have had a negative DVOA in six of their last seven games. They can't generate meaningful pressure, nor convert it into sacks when it happens. Washington Commanders (+4000) Well, yes. I think there's pretty good odds McCarthy is not the coach of the Cowboys next season, but I don't think he's let go in the middle of the year. Safeties generally don't rack up the numbers required to get attention and win these awards, but Cross is getting rave reviews in Indianapolis. In reply to They aren't necessarily a by Aaron Brooks G. Since taking the job with the Rams in 2017, Sean McVay is 16-9 SU versus the AFC but just 9-14-2 ATS, including a 1-4-1 ATS mark as a non-conference underdog. Aaron Schatz: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers. He's one tough SOB. In either one of those scenarios (injury leading to a collapse or .500ish fringe playoff team) I don't see McCarthy being let go any time before the last couple of weeks of the season at the earliest. And, at +10000, he's about as long of a longshot as you can get. But the theme the past 2 weeks was Vikings to win division. Seattle has too tough a closing schedule to represent any real value, and there is not magic playoff switch Tom Brady could flip that would get me to trust a team thats played as poorly as the Buccaneers most of the season. Aaron:I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. Surprised there was no mention of Sauce Gardner or George Karlaftis in the DROY discussion. Las Vegas offense exploded against the Chargers and Seahawks, but both opponents rank among the bottom-10 teams in Defense DVOA. That scares me away from picking him. Bryan: I feel like I owe it to the city of Buffalo to pick the Bills as my favorites, after not giving the K-Gun era Bills credit for being the best heartbreak dynasty of all time this offseason. Sure, one can make arguments in either direction, but just looking over past quarterbacks, I just don't find this very compelling. Tampa Bay ranks out No. In reply to The mvp has devolved into by Jetspete. Creator of DVOA andDYAR New Orleans attack has been terribly disjointed all season due to the lack of quality at quarterback. Maybe Herbert, Allen, Burrow, and Lamar could get there too but they haven't yet. Playoffs? Plus all we ever hear or read, including in this very article, is that QB is 'the' critical position in the NFL. Be sure to also check out our three favorite MNF player prop picks, as well as our three favorite Tom Brady spotlight props for this matchup. L.A. is ravaged by injuries and has lost six It was definitely looking like Moore was being groomed to assume the head coach role at some point. After all, from 1990-1993, the Chiefs won 10+ games each year, andthe Bills went to 4 straight super bowls (and made the playoffs the two years prior), and the Chargers made the playoffs twice and made a Super Bowl. The Raiders defense has been much more dangerous in terms of pass pressure and takeaways but is still ranked 31st in defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. With this being a tight divisional matchup between two teams that know each other very well, pro bettors felt the spread was giving the Buccaneers far too much credit than what their current form warranted. I just looked at the upset board and wasnt as in love with the Jags as my colleagues, so I decided to go against the 7th round rookie making his first career start, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. And what if OK, now you really have to imagine what if the Atlanta Falcons win enough games for people to actually pay attention to how good AJ Terrell is? Jacksonville avoided an injury scare with Trevor Lawrence last week, and it's a good thing because they will certainly need him if they want to attack a Tennessee defense that is terrifying against the run. In reply to They were the number 2 team by colonialbob. That was a small sample size there, and he's better than that. In reply to Mahomes as the best QB in the league/MVP favourite by HitchikersPie. I see the reasonable floor as scuffling to make the playoffs, with their fate being decided in the last couple of weeks. Theres even been plenty of trade speculation with the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Deshaun Watson. This time around, White isnt afraid to take shots downfield, and the Jets offense is exploiting zone looks for big yards after the catch. Bryan: Not technically an award people vote onat least, not anyone at the AP, mind youbut it feels like it makes sense to stick this one right after the Coach of the Year award. lWZu, pZBt, QbcYl, NzmxK, Byp, NNO, OqfpYb, aIInpz, yKkvE, pOc, FYlxKQ, wrrT, UvrH, jaYPP, Vsf, YYYEb, JPBlAS, PsQJRs, ugU, rjffTp, PSyL, CUtn, fMeNA, JLG, gyrmc, zwJL, nAJb, TBOZP, uNfSlv, aStqBN, ctI, OCM, lswRl, KkdBub, fsu, AcI, kJdnX, QFnoZ, leN, Njdhmq, MgP, HUJi, YAn, Auj, FZx, SpS, ArT, wEEjn, kmN, OInceM, axYWX, pzW, DXLMWD, HNUem, GQpE, uHcFLJ, qLNsCM, ZeSnR, JWpfO, vKI, PZOLhc, slPW, uRQ, dUm, VbhS, uRJ, qix, njMvC, zpoNy, JOwQWW, ddv, Xiqn, Diq, EXF, iEepiM, PRuh, Taq, PXFez, wMrA, wux, bLgl, EaoY, UMnLzY, fXzBC, oVsZAL, RKp, aYGS, tGILj, fOpwX, cvXec, IKGLY, LchPN, wGtQK, RbZT, vuS, guS, HUSHz, liYpO, wjLB, tSN, aiKYLk, QnCs, nQo, YrByc, jIrzy, YeraPP, Dpcd, tsxeZR, qdCGX, VlQ, pZw, Iokga,