104. An extended playoff would have numerous benefits. Oklahoma: 81-74, (52.3%) Kansas: 91-63, (59.1%) 3. In order to look ahead before any games are played, the win/loss method is based solely on a teams opponents win/loss record from the previous season. Oregon State: 84-70, (54.5%) Vanderbilt: 105-55, (65.6%) 14. TCU lost its first game of the season to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. BYU: 93-60, (60.8%) 27:02. Rutgers: 81-71, (53.3%) ET on Saturday, Dec 3. 27. Tulane: 82-68, (54.7%) 8 USC covers as a 1.5-point favorite in the 2022 Cotton Bowl Classic against No. 39. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 13-0 12-0 1.51 1.73 4 1.46 1 2.46 1 1.48 19 4.58 9 8.48 6 2 Sun 11 Dec 2022 09.42 EST. Your email address will not be published. Additionally, I would suggest that there are no automatic qualifiers. RELATED:Michigan thinking big thoughts, Ohio State wondering about CFP hopes after The Game blowout. Vanderbilt: 105-55, (65.6%) 3. First, the numbers listed include games against FBS and FCS teams If you are going to count games vs FCS then include FCS teams in the list above as they too play FCS and FBS opponents. 89. 71. 16. The BCS was morphed into the 4 Team College Football Invitational, Administration LLC mythical Playoff. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions. The top 25 of the SAFER rankings for 2020 are shown below. Ohio State was punished by the committee for playing far fewer games than ACC, SEC, and Big 12 teams, but they were not punished in strength of record. UCLA: 63-85, (42.6%) View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers. 1 Georgia (0-0) 26 San Diego State (0-0) Required fields are marked *. Georgia: 75-79, (48.7%) document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); I apologize for the length but I have several comments. Their strength of schedule in 2022 is 1st nationally. 108. 98. Second, using this W/L method a team that played 12 opponents that all had 7-5 records (1 game over 0.500) would end-up with a combined record of 84-60 (58.3%). Two games are slated for that day, the HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl and the Duluth Trading Cure Bowl. The winners of the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinalsthe Peach Bowl and the Fiesta Bowlwill contest the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship. Joga Bonito. The winners of the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinalsthe Peach Bowl and the Fiesta Bowlwill contest the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship. 60. 53. Louisville's Ben Sowders is expected Another one of the bowl season college football picks from the model: No. Southern Miss: 72-76, (48.6%) Computers programmed by Humans mythically producing objective, balanced, fair Rankings for Team 1 VS 2. 1 Georgia, No. 64. One easy way to choose the top 4 teams would be to create a metric that captures the overall strength of a teams wins and the weakness of their losses. 2022 FCS College Football - Best Strength of Schedule This Season a ranking of every Division I Team Records - Best Strength of Schedule 2022 FCS College Football | WarrenNolan.com Does Ohio State get in over Southern California? Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are all in the East division, while the West division contains Wisconsin and Iowa. 118. Mississippi State: 98-58, (62.8%) 69. 4. College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings. 36. Arkansas: 102-55, (65.0%) 4. 52. TCU: 83-69, (54.6%) 51 Louisiana St (0-0) 79 Wyoming (0-0) The Tigers have remaining games at home vs. Arkansas, Texas A&M, and WKU and on the road at No. There are several sources for strength of schedule, most of them computer components that were formerly part of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) rankings. Buffalo: 75-78, (49.0%) Therefore, there would still be dire consequences for a loss or several losses. Here's the quick guide to the 2022 SEC Championship Game, which features LSU and Georgia at 4 p.m. 95. ESPNs F ootball P ower I ndex is more of he same Trust Five Conferences institutionalized Bias in plain sight but not officially part of the committee Members metrics although its quoted throughout the whole off season, September & Oktober leading up to the top 4 Team Rankings in November. 13. 6 in the CFP rankings this past Tuesday, it seemed even more unlikely Alabama (10-2) could sneak into the four-team field. According to ESPNs Football Power Index (FPI), the Vanderbilt Commodores have played the toughest schedule so far this season. 125. SECupcakes always over rated as too how good they are This ranking system should rank teams based on their strength of record, using a composite of several predictive measures to determine the strength of opponents and expected win probability for an average top 25 team. Before the final rankings are unveiled by the CFP committee, I predict where the top 25 teams land. Louisiana: 58-89, (39.5%) New Mexico: 83-69, (54.6%) The best existing metric for this is ESPNs Strength of Record. Some of my personal suggestions for an expanded playoff are that there should be first-round byes (similar to the NFL) and true home games for the higher seed in order to incentivize winning deep into the season. All Rights Reserved. Ole Miss: 81-71, (53.3%) 12 Mississippi (0-0) 32 Air Force (0-0) Houston: 64-84, (43.2%) Playing a quality schedule is more important Ohio State is ranked fifth ahead of the final rankings. Complete list of inter-conference football games for the 2022 college football season. Stanford: 89-63, (58.6%) Pre-Bowl Ranking: 2021: 34, 2020: 23, 2019: 37. Here are their 2022 schedules (the #s in front of the opponents are their final 2021 ranking in the Massey Composite). TCU Should be in Regardless. Most use an imaginary average team to play each of the 130 actual schedules. 2022 NCAA | Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. Appalachian State: 78-70, (52.7%) Other tough schedules played include Alabama, Arkansas, Texas Tech, and Vanderbilt. Maryland: 86-66, (56.6%) Arkansas State: 74-75, (49.7%) He has covered numerous NCAA championship events, including the FCS Championship, DI Track & Field Championships and Men's Frozen Four. Florida: 87-68, (56.1%) Ohio State strength of record Likewise, Ohio State has a significant strength of record, coming in at No. TCU's strength of record (3) is above Clemson (4). Looking at each of the rankings, Auburn has played the toughest schedule in the eyes of the computer indexes, which matches up with the preseason prediction by Phil Steele. Furthermore, the seemingly inconsistent approach of the CFP Committee has left college football fans confused. 106. These are the biggest stadiums in college football, Here are the final top 25 College Football Playoff rankings, Recapping conference championship weekend, College Football Playoff rankings release schedule, Michigan thinking big thoughts, Ohio State wondering about CFP hopes after The Game blowout, The schools the most CFP rankings without making the playoff, CFP likelihood of a Week 6 undefeated team, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. See Colleys site for an explanation of FCS Groupings. Instead of having a committee choose teams for the College Football Playoff, there should be a concrete Okay, so Rice is here because it went to class it was on top of the APR rankings so it was able to go bowling at 5-7. Ohio State is ranked No. 29. 6 in the CFP rankings this past Tuesday, it seemed even more unlikely Alabama (10-2) could sneak into the four-team field. College Football HQ pick: Louisville 23, Cincinnati 20 New Mexico Bowl: SMU (-1.5) vs. BYU pick. Strength of Record: An Objective Way to Rank Teams. Weve reached the mid-point of the 2022 season, which means its a good time to take a look at the college football strength of schedule rankings (SOS) as they stand now. An average top 25 team would have had just an 11% to win against Alabama, 36% against Mississippi State, 46% against Tennessee, and 51% against Auburn. The Big 12 is second with two teams, followed by the ACC, American, Big Ten, and Mountain West with one each. 90. 126. 98. According to this method, the Navy Midshipmen have the toughest 2022 football schedule, while the UMass Minutemen have the easiest 2022 schedule. 64. Air Force: 76-75, (50.3%) The Tigers are third in Sagarin, fifth in Massey, seventh in Billingsley, and second in the ESPN FPI (see below). It doesnt matter who the COO is, hes the Executive Secretary to Bill Hancock. but it was still a rebirth for a college football blue blood that has had only short spurts of success over the last decade. 114. South Carolina: 92-62, (59.7%) Texas: 99-59, (62.7%) 79. Wyoming: 80-70, (53.3%) Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL. Louisville's Ben Sowders is expected to be hired for the role, according to a report from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. ULM: 84-67, (55.6%) 96. Ball State: St 74-79, (48.4%) The Vols are No. College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Ohio State takes No. Every NCAA conference/school ranked by how much their former players make in the NFL, North Carolina State vs Other Conferences. BYU was likely overrated because it was difficult to determine strength of schedule without a large sample of non-conference games. Therefore, the CFP needs to expand, preferably to 12 or 14 teams, to give all teams a chance regardless of whether they are a member of a Power 5 conference or not. Using my strength of record rankings, I looked at what a 14 team college football playoff would look like as of right now (before conference championship games). This point out that the strength of a teams schedule is at the TOP of the schedule and not at the bottom! ET on Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022, on CBS. Virginia Tech: 72-77, (48.3%) 70. Thus, in both cases the average team would be expected to end-up 6-6 so the schedules would be rated as equals. 103. 47. In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 261 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations. 2 Michigan, No. Washington State: 68-82, (45.3%) Will that be enough for TCU to get in? James Madison: 70-69, (50.4%) Alabama tops the strength of schedule rankings in the Massey Ratings, followed by Texas and Arkansas. Health and Safety/Sport Science Institute, Guide for the College-Bound Student-Athlete. Notre Dame: 73-76, (49.0%) The 2022-23 bowl schedule begins in one week on Friday, December 16, 2022. The four teams competing in the Playoff were selected by the CFP selection committee, whose final rankings were released on December 4, 2022, at 12:00 p.m. EST. 6 in strength of schedule. 5. The first 2022 College Football Playoff Ranking has been revealed with Tennessee first and Michigan outside the top four. Connecticut: 82-69, (54.3%) We'll find out Sunday. CFP:College Football Playoff rankings release schedule. UPDATE: Here are the final top 25 College Football Playoff rankings. Old Dominion: 85-68, (55.6%) Our College Football Strength of Schedule rankings represents the average difficulty of those opponents that each team has faced or will face during the 2022 season. 8. 81. The win/loss method is exactly as it sounds its based on wins and losses. Colorado State: 92-62, (59.7%) North Carolina: 94-59, (61.4%) He has eight years of experience as a digital producer, previously working for FOX TV Stations (2020-2022), Gray TV (2018-2020) and WBRC (2014-2017). Iowa State: 85-68, (55.6%) North Texas: 68-80, (45.9%) While neither the Buckeyes or Tide played this weekend, the CFP committee left the door open for Alabama's playoff hopes with his remarks saying, "That's not necessarily the case" when asked about Ohio State remaining in front of Alabama. By including only the top four teams in the entire FBS (just 3% of 130 teams), several deserving and skilled teams are left out annually. No. 56. 71. Indiana: 96-59, (61.9%) 14 Tulane on Jan. 2 Louisville: 96-57, (62.7%) 21. Kentucky: 84-71, (54.2%) Utah: 71-80, (4700%) Additionally, he covered the 2021 Celebration Bowl. Jordan Smith joined NCAA.com in January 2022. 28. 124. 40 Auburn (0-0) 59 Oregon State (0-0) You can read the CFP committee's official protocols here. My model has several issues, like overrating some group of five teams, such as Appalachian State and Air Force, and underrating some good teams from this year, like Oklahoma and Cincinnati (both of which are highly ranked in almost every predictive model). Phil Steele has published his 2022 college football strength of schedule rankings. 45. The College Football Playoff has been controversial since its conception. Post-Bowl Ranking: 2021: 34, 2020: 23, 2019: 28. 108. Navy: 100-52, (65.8%) 2. On the surface this seems ok but upon deeper inspection it too is highly flawed. Akron: 81-72, (52.9%) Utah State: 73-77, (48.7%) There are currently 130 FBS teams and therefore the average team is #65.5. Oregon: 83-70, (54.2%) Arkansas: 102-55, (65.0%) 4. Outside of the top 4, however, my strength of record has Ole Miss, Michigan State, and Iowa ranked higher than the CFP Committees rankings, while Baylor, Ohio State, and Pittsburgh are ranked lower. However, there are weaknesses, most important of which is an inability to incorporate head to head results (like Ohio States win over Michigan State). The use of software that blocks ads hinders our ability to serve you the content you came here to enjoy. Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. The SEC leads with four teams in the Top 10 of the rankings Vanderbilt (2), Arkansas (3), Auburn (4), and Mississippi State (5). Currently, the division format gives the possibility for a very undeserving team to win the conference. 117 Arizona (0-0) 105 Colorado State (0-0) topdan Menu Statistics NCAAF Interconference; NCAAF Vegas Bias; NFL Saleries by Some strengths of using strength of record to rank teams is that it is objective, relies only on schedule and record, and does not rely on a teams rating (which is a predictive metric ranking teams based on per-play efficiency). UCF: 66-81, (44.9%) Enter your information to receive emails about offers, promotions from NCAA.com and our partners. 24. San Diego State: 69-81, (46.0%) 114. 104. Only Bowl Games, By conference Against schedule B team #11 would be 6-0 against teams #125-130 but would be lucky to win 1 games vs teams #1-6 or 2 games max. 2022 College Football Strength of Schedule | Win/Loss Method. They also rank Florida State, BYU, and UConns schedule in the Top 10, whereas those three schools do not appear in the Top 10 of any other computer ranking. The Crimson Tide sit two spots outside of the playoff field but behind No. We are hours away from the final College Football Playoff rankings. topdan Menu Statistics NCAAF Interconference; NCAAF Vegas Bias; NFL Saleries by College; Play; NCAAF Interconference Records. Predicting NBA First-Time All-Stars in2022-23, Foul up 3 or Defend? Arkansas fired coach Jamil Walker on Nov. 26 after three seasons with the Razorbacks. 53. powerrankingsguru.com/college-football/strength-of-schedule.php College Football Playoff rankings predictions: The final top 25 projections These predictions are as of 9:00 p.m. 9. | No. The Crimson Tide is No. 75. FAYETTEVILLE It took just over a week, but Arkansas football has reportedly found its new strength and conditioning coach. 37. 5 Ohio State. Bill Hancock formed The CFP, Administaration, LLC with himself as Executive Director & a COO. We ask that you consider turning off your ad blocker so we can deliver you the best experience possible while you are here. The SAFER rankings are less accurate as a result of scheduling abnormalities due to COVID-19, and the number of games played was not accounted for because I used win percentage in my strength of record, not total wins. Conversely, the odds of team #11 beating team #1 might 40% less than team #11 beating team #21. Central Michigan: 72-80, (47.4%) Western Michigan: 82-71, (53.6%) The strength of an opponent is determined by their ranking in our Composite College Football Power Rankings. 94. UNDEFEATED TRACKER:FBS teams with perfect seasons so far. 50. Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and Ohio State made the 2022 College Football Playoff. 92. Watch B1G win nearly all the bowl games this season. Georgia Southern: 92-63, (59.4%) Northwestern: 88-66, (57.1%) 112. Auburn: 101-55, Power Rankings Guru 2015-2019. College Football HQ pick: Louisville 23, Cincinnati 20 New Mexico Bowl: SMU (-1.5) vs. BYU pick. 122. College football strength of schedule rankings for 2022 season. College Football News College football transfer portal tracker for 2023: Updates The transfer portal is open, with several good players among those looking for new schools. Florida State: 89-61, (59.3%) This would not decrease the importance of the regular season, but rather increase it since more teams have more meaningful games and there is an incentive to win in order to achieve home playoff games and a bye. 32. Here is the current top 15: Obviously, Georgia ranks number 1, and the rest makes sense as they are followed by Michigan, Alabama, and Cincinnati. 130. What teams does Vegas under and over value? Another one of the bowl season college football picks from the model: No. For questions or updates to theDivision I Football Records, please email Jeff Williams (jswilliams@ncaa.org). Georgia State: 83-71, (53.9%) It beat Arkansas and Mississippi State when they were ranked. 51. 12. Michigan State: 81-72, (52.9%) 78. 18. That said, TCU's strength of 6 in strength of record and No. Oklahoma State: 82-70, (53.9%) 73. According to the Sagarin ratings, here are the top 10 divisions in schedule strength: Bonus: Heres a look at the top 10 toughest remaining schedules according to the ESPN FPI: Your email address will not be published. One positive things about my model is that it correctly predicted Alabama as the champion and it predicted Ohio State beating Clemson in the CFP semi-final. 16. TCU Should be in Regardless. West Virginia: 90-64, (58.4%) UTSA: 74-77, (49.0%) Notre Dame visits Ohio State to kick off the season on Sept. 3 in a game that is likely to have College Football Playoff implications. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); The SOS was created & is maintained by the Trust Six Conferences to legitimize Their Trust Control of their mythical B owl C hampionship S eries Championship. Take the Big Ten, for example. New Mexico State: 64-85, (43.0%) 5:45, ESPN. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. 41. This means that we obviously shouldnt use win-loss record alone, but reward more for beating good teams and punish more for losing to bad teams. 81. In 2020, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Notre Dame were selected to the College Football Playoff. Consider two schedules: A) where the opponents are teams #60-71 and B) where the opponents are #1-6 and #125-130. because of the symmetry of the bell curve the odds of the average team beating the teams on the right side of the curve are equal to the odds of this team losing to the teams on the left side of the curve. Additionally, the playoff field should be expanded from 4 teams to 12 or 14 teams to increase entertainment levels and give all teams a chance. Cincinnati: 71-78, (47.7%) 2 Alabama (0-0) 27 Brigham Young (0-0) Texas Tech: 95-58, (62.1%) 22. 93. Ranking by strength of record is not only limited to ESPNs FPI model, but rather can be utilized with any predictive college football model. Most metrics have TCUs strength of schedule as the strongest of all four playoff teams. Baylor: 80-72, (52.6%) Auburn is followed by Colorado and FCS Group 12. In this light one can see there is no comparison between the two schedules above. Colorado: 81-71, (53.3%) In 2021, Auburn's strength of schedule was 6th nationally. The sixth and final CFP top 25 reveals happens on Sunday, Dec. 4 on ESPN (here's the full schedule). 11. Compared to the current CFP Rankings (week 14), the top 4 teams are the same and are also in the same order. Kent State: 71-79, (47.3%) 66. Navy: 100-52, (65.8%) Temple: 72-78, (48.0%) College football strength of schedule: 2022 Win/Loss method. FBSchedules - College and Pro Football Schedules. 99) Jadon Canady, CB, Tulane Armstrong is the single-season record holder in a bevy of statistics in UVAs history, most notably total offense (4,700 yards). In addition this method lists Mississippi State and Boise State as having equally tough schedules (98-58). 16 Arkansas (0-0) 36 Utah State (0-0) Tippman uses aggression, technique, and brute strength to overmatch defenders in both facets equally. A low opponent average ranking (opp avg) indicates a difficult schedule, whereas a high opponent average ranking suggests an easier schedule. Boston College: 78-72, (52.0%) Jeff Sagarins index has the Stanford Cardinals with the toughest schedule in the country. 49. Southern California is ranked fourth ahead of the final rankings. Overrated? 1 Georgia, No. Fresno State: 64-85, (43.0%) View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers. Updated by Dan on Nov 26, 2022. Eastern Michigan: 81-73, (52.6%) 42. The following has been assumed: 16 Penn State, No. 87. ET on Saturday, Dec 3. 6 in strength of schedule. (LogOut/ Wisconsin: 81-70, (53.6%) setting a USC record Our Strength of Schedule Remaining rankings show the average difficulty of opponents each team will face for the rest of the season. The championship game will NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings. 75. Toledo: 80-73, (52.3%) In addition, there would be more top-tier matchups between top 15 teams during the playoffs. Im surprised that Florida and Missouri arent on there, but I imagine theyre close. Or will a team like Alabama knock the Horned Frogs out of the playoff field? 81. Clemson's updated College Football Playoff ranking unveiled by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - 2022-11-15 22:07:19.0 Your email address will not be published. Below are the matchups in a potential 14 team college football playoff. For questions or updates to the Division I Football Records, please email Jeff Williams ( jswilliams@ncaa.org ). The Horned Frogs only have one loss and there are only four teams with one or fewer losses remaining in the FBS. Ranking college football's easiest and hardest schedules in 2022. Clemson was ranked No. California: 69-80, (46.3%) LSU: 87-66, (56.9%) Comparing the twos schedules its clear that TCUs resume is better than Ohio States even if they lose to a good Kansas State team Saturday. Thus the expected outcome for schedule B would be 6-6, 7-5, or max of 8-4. There are various methods to measure college football strength of schedule, and the win/loss method is commonly used. Our Strength of Schedule Played shows the current average ranking for each opponent that a given team has faced to date. The 2022 Georgia football schedule, including game times, scores, opponents, TV channels and locations. Billingsley is the only computer index to rank Arkansas schedule as the toughest. 67. 19 Kentucky (0-0) 38 Fresno State (0-0) Tulsa: 81-70, (53.6%) The CFP Committee is inconsistent with their rankings, and the playoff field is too small. 7. 35. Michigan: 71-81, (46.7%) There have been two instances of an undefeated Group of 5 team missing the College Football Playoff, with UCF in 2017 and Cincinnati in 2020 both left out of the top four after going 13-0. Below are Among the teams Vandy has played are Alabama and Georgia on the road and Wake Forest and Ole Miss at home. Troy: 83-68, (55.0%) NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen.GO HERE. Duke: 69-80, (46.3%) To get a stronger feel for the 2022 FCS football season, list below provides the combined win percentage of each schools Division I opponents (opponents from D-II and 2022 College Football Top 100 Players. With an extended playoff, teams will have more meaningful games further into the season, and fans and players alike will be more engaged. UTEP: 66-83, (44.3%) USC: 78-73, (51.7%) Purdue 70-79, (47.0%) For questions or updates to theDivision II, please email Phil Pierce (ppierce@ncaa.org) and for Division III Football Records, please email Sean Straziscar (sstraziscar@ncaa.org). While ranked first here, Alabamas 2022 schedule is currently ranked 18th by Jeff Sagarin. Wake Forest: 75-73, (50.7%) Baylor is ranked low because they had 8 games which the average top 25 team would have an 80%+ chance to win (partially due to my model underrating Oklahoma) and Pittsburgh is low since their only challenge in the ACC was a home game vs Clemson (they avoided playing NC State, Wake Forest, and Louisville). Ole Miss is ranked in the top 5 despite 2 losses because they played Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Auburn (each of which is in the top 22 of NCAA SAFER) all on the road. 6 Alabama. My model was created on a per-drive basis rather than a per-play basis, where I used the starting field position, ending field position, and the drive result (all adjusted for strength of schedule) to create offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. 33. Bowling Green: 76-75, (50.3%) Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. Change), You are commenting using your Twitter account. The Auburn Tigers have the toughest schedule in 2022, while the FIU Panthers have the easiest, per Steele. Army: 82-69, (54.3%) In order to create my strength of record, I found the expected win-loss record of the average top 25 team based on the schedule for each team, then used the win percentage over expected to rank the teams. For questions or updates to the 101. 2022 Men's Final Four; 2022 Women's Final Four; 2022 Frozen Four; 2022 Men's College World Series; About the 81. 31. 108. Tennessee: 93-66, (58.5%) 2 Michigan, No. East Carolina: 79-71, (52.7%) Memphis: 70-79, (47.0%) San Jose State: 80-73, (52.3%) Boise State: 98-58, (62.8%) 53. 23. Tip Click on any record to see the opponents, dates and locations. 87. 19. The rankings are shown below. NR East Tennessee State NR Tennessee-Martin. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, while Georgia is No. The UMass: 58-89, (39.5%), Your email address will not be published. Here's the full list from ESPN, which was released on College GameDay . Just earlier this year, the Committee had Oregon one spot ahead of Ohio State, citing the head to head victory as their reasoning despite several advanced metrics suggesting Ohio State was the better team, but they also had Michigan ahead of Michigan State despite a head to head loss. 1. 85. Stan Becton joined NCAA.com in 2021 and has since served as an FCS, track and field, cross country and HBCU beat reporter. Illinois: 87-65, (57.2%) Ohio State: 86-69, (55.5%) Stan graduated from Carnegie Mellon University, earning a degree in Professional Writing and playing football as a five-year letterman. 108. UNLV: 88-65, (57.5%) 56. Missouri: 79-74, (51.6%) To eliminating the inconsistency of the CFP Committee, we need a better, more objective way to choose the top 4 teams in College Football or an expanded playoff with more than 4 teams. Last Year: Liberty 56, Eastern Michigan 20. My model had each team in the top 7. Going back to 2006, the SEC has had Florida (2), LSU (2), Alabama (6), Auburn (1) and Georgia (1) win national titles. WEEK 14 RECAP: Recapping conference championship weekend. You can follow him on Twitter @stan_becton. Additionally, undefeated (in the regular season at least) Coastal Carolina was ranked higher than undefeated Cincinnati (although this also could have been due to inaccurate strength of schedule). Nebraska: 83-69, (54.6%) The BCS was discredited by these surviving Five Trust Conferences when they moved to an objective, balanced & fair Committee of Humans in 2013, hand picked by the BCS, LLCs Company President Bill Hancock. 37. Also, consider this: the odds of team #11 beating team # 120 are ~99%; the odds of team #11 beating an FCS team might be 99.9%; and the odds of team #11 beating a high school team might be 99.999%. 119. 97. There are various methods to measure college football strength of schedule, and the win/loss method is commonly used. These strength of record ranking show a glaring issue with the College Football Playoff: its size. 42. PRO TIPS. Auburn: 101-55, (64.7%) 7 Ole Miss. Listed below are the complete strength of schedule rankings with win/loss record and winning percentage of each teams 2022 opponents (includes all games played; numbers compiled by Phil Steele). In fact, this method is used on the NCAAs official website. They would likely end-up 12-0 or 11-1 (it is doubtful that a team would end-up ranked #11 if it lost 2 games against such inferior teams). 130. All-Time 100. Hawaii: 90-75, (54.5%) Alabama was ranked sixth in last week's CFP rankings. 27:02. 113. 77. Composite College Football Power Rankings. Thus, for team #11 there is less than 1% difference between those three opponents. Thus, for good teams these schedules are vastly different! Arizona State: 72-78, (48.0%) 116. Corrigan said no effort was 47. 42. Sitting at No. USF: 85-66, (56.3%) Minnesota: 70-80, (46.7%) 2022 College Football Conference Records. How many straight years has the NFL taken more SEC players than any other conference? Texas A&M: 93-63, (59.6%) Post-Bowl Ranking: 2021: 34, 3 TCU, No. 60. 2022 College Football Strength of Schedule | Win/Loss Method. 2. 122. Note that these rankings are for strength of schedule to date and will differ from preseason rankings. Florida Atlantic: 78-75, (51.0%) Required fields are marked *. Virginia 75-75, (50.0%) 58. South Alabama: 66-81, (44.9%) Change), You are commenting using your Facebook account. Clemson: 79-69, (53.4%) ESPNs Strength of Record metric reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have teams record or better, given the schedule. This metric analyzes a teams resume, uses only their schedule, wins and losses, and opponent strength. Ohio: 72-80, (47.4%) 91. A pair of 7-5 teams square off with SMU getting the 52.5 percent advantage, For comparison purposes, we will use Phil Steeles preseason strength of schedule rankings. Coastal Carolina, San Jose State, and Cincinnati all went undefeated before bowl season, but none were even considered for the top four, even though they won all possible games. The College Football Playoff committees initial snapshot of the CFP picture is in. The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense.It 8 USC covers as a 1.5-point favorite in the 2022 Cotton Bowl Classic against No. 10. Auburn, which is first in the Colley Matrix, comes in at third behind Arkansas. 40. 24 Mississippi State and No. 33. Click the title to view the complete rankings for each source. An even more pressing issue is that it not all teams have a realistic chance to make the playoff when the season starts. but it was still a rebirth for a college football blue blood that has had only short spurts of success over the last decade. Georgia Tech: 91-62, (59.5%) Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL. Rice: 89-65, (57.8%) 117. My reasoning for this is that conference champions should automatically qualify unless divisions within conferences are expunged. College Football Playoff rankings predictions: The final top 25 projections These predictions are as of 9:00 p.m. The Trojans lost their conference championship game, marking their second loss to Utah. Alabama: 81-70, (53.6%) ET on Saturday, Dec 3. The strength of record from these rankings are displayed below. How far back do we have to go to find five different Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, or Pac 12 champions? 4 overall despite the one loss to Michigan. Sun 11 Dec 2022 09.42 EST. 4; Kansas State, Utah surge in final top 25 Jerry Palm takes a crack at how the final CFP Rankings of the 2022 The Auburn Tigers, currently 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the SEC, topped Phil Steeles preseason list. 24 Texas A&M (0-0) 54 Nevada (0-0) UAB: 75-75, (50.0%) I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. 60. Kansas State: 82-71, (53.6%) Nevada: 81-71, (53.3%) 1. Second, the playoffs would have more excitement since more teams are included, and fans can see more standout players (like Oklahomas QB Caleb Williams, Ohio States QB CJ Stroud, Ole Misss QB Matt Corral, and Michigan States RB Kenneth Walker) playing meaningful games. 9 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac 12 | SEC, By season 25. 66. Nothing has changed from last week to this week with the fifth and sixth-ranked teams but anything could happen come selections. Marshall: 93-59, (61.2%) The rankings for my model preceding the Conference Championship games are shown below. 85. The strength of record for 2020 correctly predicted the four teams in the CFP, although the order was incorrect. First, all teams would have a realistic chance to win a championship regardless of their conference. It seems like after one or two losses, a team is eliminated from a chance at winning a championship, so their games dont seem to matter as much. Following LSU on this strength of record rankings from ESPN are two programs from the Big Ten: Penn State and Ohio State. College Football Playoff Top 25 Coastal Carolina 76-75, (50.3%) Northern Illinois: 69-82, (45.7%) 26. Background. The schedule that produces the lowest probability of winning is deemed the best SOS. CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen.GO HERE. Charlotte: 73-78, (48.3%) 1. Auburn tops the strength of schedule rankings in the Colley Matrix. In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 261 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations. Background. WKU: 74-88, (45.7%) 128. or team #11 any difference is simply cosmetic! 2022 NCAA Football Records. For example, I have created my own strength of record metric using my own college football model. Alabama tops the strength of schedule rankings in the Massey Ratings, followed by Texas and Arkansas. 120. This would rank them between West Virginia and Rice or the new #26 toughest SOS! NC State: 74-75, (49.7%) FAYETTEVILLE It took just over a week, but Arkansas football has reportedly found its new strength and conditioning coach. 60. 59. Using my SAFER rankings and strength of record, I also looked at the results from the 2020 college football season. The Buckeyes did not play for their conference championship game, but only have one loss this season. Sitting at No. Middle Tennessee: 78-73, (51.7%) 5:45, ESPN. SMU: 74-76, (49.3%) 120. 129. Strength of schedule in TCU's favor in CFP rankings. In fact, this method is used on the While ranked first here, Alabamas 2022 schedule is currently ranked 18th However, lets consider team #11 playing the two schedules. The following has been assumed: Michigan wins the Big Ten, Clemson wins the ACC. Washington: 76-75, (50.3%) Change). Last Year: Liberty 56, Eastern Michigan 20. There are several issues with the current College Football Playoff. 118 Bowling Green (0-0) 121 New Mexico (0-0) 3. Liberty: 64-86, (42.7%) Arkansas: 102-55, (65.0%) Penn State: 87-67, (56.5%) Pitt: 70-79, (47.0%) It beat Arkansas and Mississippi State when they were ranked. 14 Tulane on Jan. 2 at 1 p.m. College football strength of schedule: 2022 mid-season rankings. : Analyzing late gamestrategy, True Shooting Ability: Separating Shooting Talent from ShotCircumstances. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Miami OH: 73-78, (48.3%) 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022, Compare conferences with a complete list of inter-conference games since 1998. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. 101. 5. 6 in strength of record and No. And with Texas and Oklahoma coming soon, that wont change, FBSchedules - College and Pro Football Schedules. The Crimson Tide is No. 2, while Clemson is fourth, Michigan fifth and TCU seventh. 77 Memphis (0-0) 93 Texas-El Paso (0-0) 30. Navy: 100-52, (65.8%) 2. The sport of college football would be better off without a committee ranking teams and with a different playoff format than the one currently in place. Texas State: 75-77, (49.3%) 20. I used ESPNs strength of record to create the rankings, but changed the order a little to avoid regular season rematches in the first round. Meanwhile, Michigan State is rewarded for a very difficult game at Ohio State and challenges against Michigan (home) and Purdue (road), and Iowa was rewarded for winning 2 of 3 road games against Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa State. 126. Miami FL: 70-79, (47.0%) Instead of having a committee choose teams for the College Football Playoff, there should be a concrete procedure for selecting the teams. The fact is no other conference has ever dominated the sport the way the SEC has done recently. These predictions are as of 9:00 p.m. Against schedule A, team #11 would be highly favored against all of the teams #60-71. The committee should be eliminated and replaced by a mathematical ranking system. Will USC be penalized for playing and losing in their conference championship game, allowing Ohio State to rise above them? Louisiana Tech: 79-72, (52.3%) 14. FIU: 68-82, (45.3%) Strength of schedule in TCU's favor in CFP rankings. (LogOut/ Third, computer generated SOS are also problematic. Pre-Bowl Ranking: 2021: 34, 2020: 23, 2019: 37. 74. 45. Listed below are the complete strength of schedule rankings with win/loss record and winning percentage of each teams 2022 opponents (includes all games played; numbers compiled by Phil Steele). Comparing the twos schedules its clear that TCUs resume is better than Ohio States even if they lose to a good Kansas State team Saturday. Complete list of inter-conference football games for the 2022 college football season. 107. Arizona: 93-63, (59.6%) (LogOut/ Syracuse: 85-66, (56.3%) To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Now ,the CFPA, LLC select Committee can use all of the above human programmed algorithmic Systems, tailored to fit the Trust Five Conferences with human Face Filters on the committee Members. Clemson is up to No. 1 Georgia, and No. 80. Currently ranked teams that Auburn has already played include No. Most metrics have TCUs strength of schedule as the strongest of all four playoff teams. Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee round out the top five. MSU: BSU; Vanderbilt: 105-55, (65.6%) 3. 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